Böcker av Office of Technology Assessment

Water is a major limiting factor in most areas where Western arid and semiarid agriculture is currently practiced. Increasing water demands from nonagricultural users plus growing problems of ground water depletion, salt buildup in agricultural soils, and water-quality deterioration are causing heightened concern about the sustainability of Western agriculture. A major part of this concern is focused on whether the Federal agricultural system is prepared to meet the changing needs of Western agriculture and whether technology can assist in providing the Nation with Western agricultural production that is sustainable and profitable over the long term. This report assesses existing and emerging water-related technologies for their ability to support long-term productivity of arid/semiarid agricultural plants and animals in the context of institutional factors, water supply/use relationships, and the characteristics of the renewable natural resource base on which agriculture depends. The study was requested by the House Committee on Agriculture and endorsed by the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Water Resources. The technologies examined by the study are generally directed toward: 1) improving efficiency of water use, whether for rain-fed (dryland and rangeland) systems or irrigation; 2) improving water management, storage, and distribution for agriculture; and 3) augmenting existing supplies with additional water not previously available. The report also identifies a number of options for congressional action. A background paper containing examples of application of arid/semiarid agricultural technologies in foreign countries has been published separately as part of this assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) greatly appreciates the contributions of the advisory panel, working groups and workshop participants assembled for this study, the authors of the technical papers, and the many other advisors and reviewers who assisted us, including farmers, ranchers, agricultural scientists in government and universities, and experts in the private sector. Their guidance and comments helped develop a comprehensive report. As with all OTA studies, however, the content of the report is the sole responsibility of OTA. John H. Gibbons Director

This report presents the analyses, findings, and conclusions of OTA's study of the Federal program for the management of nonnuclear industrial hazardous waste --an issue that has now reached national prominence and widespread congressional attention. OTA's findings and conclusions concerning the technical components of the Federal hazardous waste program complement current activities which have focused more on administrative problems and issues. Our work offers a number of opportunities, at this critical time, for examining solutions to national hazardous waste problems. In conducting the study, OTA analyzed a wide range of views --from the technical community, industrial sectors which generate hazardous waste, the waste management industry, the environmental community, State and local officials, Federal agencies, and the lay public. As a result of that effort, OTA identified four policy options --beyond maintaining the current Federal program-- which could form the basis for an immediate and comprehensive approach to protecting human health and the environment from the dangers posed by mismanagement of hazardous waste. One near-term option addresses the means to improve the technical effectiveness of the current regulatory structure. The other near-term option provides a nonregulatory or market approach to achieving a number of desired goals. Both of these options are compatible with the two longer term options, one of which deals with introducing waste and facility classifications into the regulatory structure, and the other which focuses on achieving greater integration of Federal programs, agencies, and statutes concerned with hazardous waste.

Since the discovery of high-temperature superconductivity (HTS), research laboratories around the world have pushed the temperature limits steadily upward, opening the way to commercial applications with potentially revolutionary impacts. The scientific race is becoming a commercial race, one featuring U.S. and Japanese companies, and one that the United States could lose. Indeed, American firms may already be falling behind in commercializing the technology of superconductivity. Japanese companies have been more aggressive in examining possible applications of HTS, and what it might mean for competitive strategy. While payoffs on R&D may lie a decade or more in the future, managers in Japan have been willing to take the risks. Although a number of U.S. companies have also begun major efforts in HTS, most American managers, under pressure to show short-term profits, have been more inclined to wait and see. So far, the US. Government has supported the development of HTS in its traditional way-by putting money into R&D, mostly through the mission agencies. Federal agencies moved quickly to channel money to HTS when news of the discoveries broke. The breadth and depth of the response in government agencies and Federal laboratories, and in the university system, shows the continuing vitality of the scientific enterprise in the United States. Although Federal dollars will help support a technology base that the private sector can build upon, the U.S. Government is not providing direct support for commercialization. Nor have we any policy or tradition for this kind of support-unlike countries such as Japan. Postwar U.S. technology policy coupled R&D funding with indirect measures, such as tax policy, to stimulate commercial innovation. So long as American companies remained well ahead of the rest of the world in technical skills and management ability, this approach proved successful. With the continuing decline in competitiveness across many sectors of the U.S. economy, it no longer seems good enough.

President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative has kindled a national debate over the roles of strategic nuclear weapons, ballistic missile defenses, and arms control in U.S. national security policy. It has also underscored the important ramifications of U.S. military space policy. At the requests of the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the Office of Technology Assessment of the United States Congress undertook an assessment of the opportunities and risks involved in an accelerated program of research on new ballistic missile defense technologies, including those that might lead to deployment of weapons in space. Debate over the relevant political, military, and technical issues has been hotly contested by participants with widely varying assumptions and points of view. OTA has not attempted to resolve the debate, but rather to try to clarify the issues and enhance the level of discourse. This report examines both the "why" and the "what" of ballistic missile defenses. Why would we want ballistic missile defense weapons if we could have them? Would the advantages of deploying them outweigh the disadvantages? What technologies are under investigation for BMD applications? How might those applications serve our strategic goals? These policy and technology questions interact with one another in complex ways: what seems technologically possible conditions perceptions of policy options, while policy choices shape technological pursuits.

Large ocean energy farms may one day prove to be an alternative source of synthetic natural gas for homes and businesses. Research into new ocean biomass energy systems has been reviewed here by the Office of Technology Assessment of the United States Congress, with the assistance of specialists in the research and development aspects of ocean farming. This report presents the status of ocean energy farm developments and evaluates their potential. While ocean energy farms are now in the early stages of development and much research remains to be done, the prospects are encouraging. This book contains descriptive and analytic material concerning ocean biomass resources; potential for future ocean farms; technologies of ocean farming; existing government and private efforts; energy and economic data; environmental effects and legal aspects; and future research needs.

Archaeological remains and historic structures and landscapes are important tangible reminders of this Nation's rich and diverse cultural heritage. They provide a sense of our past and contribute in other ways to our quality of life. Yet, in recent years, as the result primarily of population shifts, urban growth, and energy development, the stresses on these unique, nonrenewable cultural resources have increased dramatically. As this assessment makes clear, the appropriate use of a wide variety of preservation technologies, many of which were originally developed for applications in natural science and engineering, could reduce many of these stresses. This report presents the primary findings of an assessment requested by the House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs. The Subcommittee on Public Lands is carrying out a major review of how Federal agencies implement Federal preservation policy. This assessment directly supports the Committee's review by showing how the uses of certain methods, techniques, as well as tools and equipment can assist Federal, State, and local preservation efforts. The assessment takes the unusual step of focusing on the applications of preservation technologies rather than preservation disciplines. It examines the current use of preservation technologies and identifies research and development needs. It also explores how improvements in Federal policy and implementation can facilitate the more effective use of technologies appropriate for managing this country's prehistoric and historic cultural resources. In undertaking this assessment, OTA sought the contributions of a wide spectrum of knowledgeable and interested individuals. Some provided information and guidance, others reviewed drafts of the report. OTA gratefully acknowledges their contributions of time and intellectual effort. OTA also appreciates the timely help rendered by a number of individuals from the National Park Service. JOHN H. GIBBONS Director

The Office of Technology Assessment is currently preparing an assessment of energy from biological processes. In the course of this study we have carried out an extensive analysis of alcohol fuels from agricultural products. This technical memorandum presents these findings in response to congressional interest in synthetic fuels. The purpose of the memorandum is to illuminate the technical and non-technical issues surrounding the development of gasohol. It discusses the resource base, production technologies, and economics of gasohol, and its use as a transportation fuel. The report also contains a discussion of the environmental problems and benefits of producing and using gasohol, and the social and institutional issues about using agricultural products for energy.While the memorandum does not present an analysis of policy issues, it does provide estimates of how much gasohol can be used at what cost, and the long-term prospects for ethanol production. All are important to the current congressional debate over development of a gasohol policy.

Approximately 20 million Americans work some form of nonstandard work schedule. These schedules, which require that an individual work during nondaytime hours, noncontinuous hours, or for extended periods, are referred to as "shift work." Recent advances in the understanding of the biological rhythms of the body and their control by the brain indicate that shift work can disrupt these rhythms, with possible adverse consequences for the worker. This report is the third in a series of OTA studies being conducted under an assessment of "New Developments in Neuroscience." It was requested by the House Committees on Appropriations; Energy and Commerce; Science, Space, and Technology; Veterans Affairs; and the Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. The report discusses biological rhythms: what they are, how they are controlled by the brain, and the role they play in regulating physiological and cognitive functions. The major focus of the report is the examination of the effects of nonstandard work hours on biological rhythms and how these effects can interact with other factors to affect the health, performance, and safety of workers. In addition, the report describes the Federal regulatory framework related to work hours and the current status of biological rhythm and shift work research. The report presents a range of options for congressional action related to the amount of research being conducted on these topics, the collection of relevant workplace statistical data, and the congressional role in ensuring the well-being of individuals engaged in nonstandard hours of work.

Pharmaceutical costs are among the fastest growing components of health care costs today. Although increases in the inflation-adjusted prices of ethical drugs and perceived high prices of new drugs have been a concern of congressional committees for over 30 years, the growing Federal role in paying for prescription drugs has increased the concern over the appropriateness of prices relative to the costs of bringing new drugs to market. Specific policies of U.S. and other governments can alter the delicate balance between costs and returns to pharmaceutical R&D, with ramifications for the future health of Americans, for health care costs, and for the future of the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. OTA's report focuses mainly on the economic side of the R&D process. Pharmaceutical R&D is an investment, and the principal characteristic of an investment is that money is spent today in the hopes of generating even more money in the future. Pharmaceutical R&D is a risky investment; therefore, high financial returns are necessary to induce companies to invest in researching new chemical entities. Changes in Federal policy that affect the cost, uncertainty and returns of pharmaceutical R&D may have dramatic effects on the investment patterns of the industry. Given this sensitivity to policy changes, careful consideration of the effects on R&D is needed. The specific request for this study came from the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and its Subcommittee on Health and the Environment. The Senate Committee on the Judiciary's Subcommittee on Antitrust, Monopolies, and Business Rights endorsed the study. OTA was assisted in this study by an advisory panel of business, consumer, and academic leaders chaired by Frederick M. Scherer, Ph.D., Professor of Economics, John E Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. OTA gratefully acknowledges the contribution of each of these individuals. As with all OTA reports, the final responsibility for the content of the assessment rests with OTA.

This technical memorandum presents the results of the Office of Technology Assessment's (OTA) review and assessment of the scientific evidence on the validity of polygraph testing. OTA has limited this technical memorandum to issues directly related to the scientific validity of the polygraph. OTA did not consider utility, privacy, constitutional, and ethical issues, among others that have been raised in the debate over polygraph testing. We first discuss the various types of polygraph testing procedures and ways in which the polygraph is used, and then summarize the judicial, legislative, and scientific controversy over polygraph testing validity. Next, we review and evaluate both prior reviews of the scientific research on polygraph validity and the individual research studies. Finally, we discuss the range of factors that may affect polygraph validity and the possibilities for future research, and present OTA's conclusions about the scientific evidence for current and proposed Federal Government polygraph use. In preparing this memorandum, OTA has drawn on research information available from a wide variety of sources, including the major Federal Government polygraph users, the American Polygraph Association, various private polygraph practitioners, and polygraph researchers both in the United States and abroad.

Substance abuse and addiction are complex phenomena that defy simple explanation or description. A tangled interaction of factors contributes to an individual's experimentation with, use, and perhaps subsequent abuse of drugs. Regardless of the mix of contributing factors, the actions and effects exerted by drugs of abuse underlie all substance abuse and addiction. In order to understand substance abuse and addiction it is first necessary to understand how drugs work in the brain, why certain drugs have the potential for being abused, and what, if any, biological differences exist between individuals in their susceptibility to abuse drugs.This background paper describes biological contributing factors to substance abuse and addiction.

This report complements the forthcoming OTA assessment on water and agriculture in U.S. arid/semiarid lands. The full assessment focuses on U.S. experience. Foreign experience is also important, however, particularly as U.S. agricultural, economic, and foreign aid interests are increasingly linked with those of other countries. The global significance of agricultural research and development on arid/semiarid lands is underscored by the fact that as much as 20 percent of the Earth's surface is arid and semiarid, containing nearly 16 percent of the world's population.Described are selected foreign experiences using technology to develop and sustain agriculture in arid lands. The selection of examples was based on three broad considerations: 1) availability of current reliable information, 2) variety of examples both in land use and technology type, and 3) projects of potential interest and relevance to the United States. The examples include breeding crops for drought resistance, game ranching, improving irrigation management, developing rubber production from arid/semiarid plants, and adopting technology-intensive water programs and policies. U.S. cooperative efforts with some of these experiments and technology transfer considerations for U.S. arid/semiarid agriculture are also discussed.This paper was prepared by OTA Project Director Barbara Lausche based on extensive contractor research and with the assistance of OTA Food and Renewable Resources Program staff listed in this paper. OTA wishes to thank and acknowledge the Water and Arid/Semiarid Agriculture Advisory Panel and other contributors noted in the footnotes to this document who provided helpful materials and reviews to the OTA staff.

Throughout history, man has been fascinated by the mysteries that lay hidden below the ocean surface. Jules Verne, the 19th century novelist, author of 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, captured the imagination and curiosity of the public with his fictional -but nonetheless farsighted- accounts of undersea exploration and adventure. Since his classic portrayal of life beneath the ocean, technology has enabled us to bridge the gap between Jules Verne's fiction and the realities that are found in ocean space. Although the technological triumphs in ocean exploration are phenomenal, the extent of our current knowledge about the resources that lie in the seabed is very limited. In 1983, the United States asserted control over the ocean resources within a 200- nautical mile band off its coast, as did a large number of other maritime countries. Within this so-called Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a vast area of seabed that might contain significant amounts of minerals. It is truly the Nation's "New Frontier." This report on exploring the EEZ for its mineral potential is in response to a joint request from the House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries and the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. It examines the current knowledge about the hard mineral resources within the EEZ, explores the economic and security potential of seabed resources, assesses the technologies available to both explore for and mine those resources, identifies issues that face the Congress and the executive branch, and finally presents options to the Congress for dealing with these issues. Substantial assistance was received from many organizations and individuals in the course of this study. We would like to express special thanks to the OTA advisory panel; the numerous participants in our workshops; the project's contractors and consultants for contributing their special expertise; the staffs of the executive agencies that gave selflessly of their knowledge and counsel; the many reviewers who kept us intellectually honest and factually accurate; and our sister congressional agency, the Congressional Research Service, for making available its expertise in seabed minerals. OTA, however, remains solely responsible for the contents of this Report. JOHN H. GIBBONS Director, Office of Technology Assessment